Who else doesn't feel like the 2024 election has begun? Can we just get on with it?
There are telltale signs that a new year is picking up steam. The days get longer, the Earth gets warmer and a rodent in Pennsylvania does or does not see its shadow. Presidential election years have their own set of signs.
There have already been three statewide primaries this year. Iowa's Republican caucuses, New Hampshire's primaries and South Carolina's Democratic primary have all had their say. Nevada's holding both Democratic and Republican primaries Tuesday, with the Palmetto State's GOP primary following on Feb. 24.
Those primaries and Super Tuesday, March 5, were to be the first big milestones of this election to get us excited. Except that isn't happening.
It doesn't feel like an election year at all – not yet at least. It all seems like a foregone conclusion. For millions of people, it is easy to turn off the television, log off social media and completely ignore the certainty of a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November. Voters are either bracing for that or avoiding reality entirely.
Republican voters decided early
On the Republican end, there should be legitimate competition. Instead, it's been all over the place, with Trump clearly taking precedent over candidates who aren't in the midst of gargantuan legal battles.
Iowa exemplified how people are feeling: 15% of Republican voters – about 110,000 people, less than the population of Cedar Rapids – showed up in record-breaking temperatures to cast their votes. It was the lowest turnout since 2000.
New Hampshire was a drastically different story. A record number of Republican ballots were cast in the late January election, and Trump performed better than he had in 2016. He actually set a new record, more than 166,000 votes – the most of any candidate in the history of the Granite State's primaries (the record was previously held by Sen. Bernie Sanders's 152,000 votes).
At this point, Nikki Haley is the only Republican going against Trump, and he's soaring past her in every poll. It doesn't mean she should drop out, but the writing is on the wall. The majority of Republicans want to see Trump as their presidential nominee in spite of the turmoil he has created, and there isn't any stopping his return to the presidential race.
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Democrats are still holding primaries
While Republicans accept the reality of Trump, the Democratic Party is either collectively sleeping or patting themselves on the back for just getting through the next few months. They've only had two primaries, but you're lying to yourself if you believe anyone but Biden was going to be the nominee.
Yes, there have been countless articles over the past few years as to whether it would be wise for the president to seek reelection in 2024. He told donors back in December that he wasn't even sure he would be running again if not for The Trump Thing.
Biden wasn't even on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary after a dispute over the day of the election. A write-in campaign secured him the nomination there, with about 80,000 votes. He won South Carolina with more than 96% of the vote.
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Is the average voter paying attention yet?
Both nominees could be picked without the average American even noticing.
It's not like 2020, where a crowded Democratic primary kept the nation engaged every step of the way. Biden is simply going to be the nominee, and we're all aware of it.
Trump, on the other hand, has reshaped the GOP until it no longer can exist without him. He's been victorious in spite of his legal troubles and will continue to be victorious because of the cult of personality he has amassed over a lifetime, and especially in the past eight years.
If it feels like the election year isn't in full force yet, it's because it isn't. We still have 47 states to go, plus South Carolina Republicans and Iowa Democrats who still need to cast ballots. But let's not kid ourselves – we know who the two nominees are going to be at this point and people have just accepted it.
A recent poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that more than half of U.S. adults would be "dissatisfied" with either Biden or Trump as their respective party nominees. Unfortunately, the rematch nobody wanted is the rematch we're all about to get.
In the meantime, we can watch Haley and Trump exchange insults until she drops out. We will look for Biden as he begins to think about how he wants to attack the upcoming election as an incumbent, albeit an unpopular one. Then, all we can do is wait for the real battle.
Follow USA TODAY elections columnist Sara Pequeño on X, formerly Twitter, @sara__pequeno and Facebook facebook.com/PequenoWrites