Fossil fuels are wrecking our health and warming the planet. Phase out overdue. | Opinion

Nearly 200 nations at the recent UN Climate Conference, or COP28, memorialized the need to transition away from fossil fuels, the first time they were mentioned directly in such an agreement. I have been to several conferences over the past two decades and this time I returned with a renewed optimism that world leaders are more committed to grapple with the existential threat of climate change. I was especially pleased to see an increased focus this year on the ways climate change and burning fossil fuels impact health.

The National Oceanic and Weather Administration noted there were 25 confirmed weather-caused disasters in the U.S. in 2023 (each one causing more than $1 billion in losses). From smoke-filled skies and atmospheric rivers, scorching heat waves and deadly wildfires, to unprecedented tornadoes and hurricanes, there’s no doubt that climate change is leading to weather volatility which contributes to humanitarian emergencies everywhere.

The focus on fossil fuel combustion is doubly warranted as being the root cause of greenhouse gas emissions heating the planet, and the major source of air pollution causing immediate harm to our health.  According to a November 2023 study in the British Medical Journal, excess deaths due to fine particulate and ozone air pollution are estimated at 8.34 million deaths per year. Specifically, an estimated 5.13 million excess deaths per year globally are attributable to ambient air pollution from fossil fuel use and therefore could potentially be avoided by phasing out fossil fuels.

First-ever focus on how climate change impacts health

At COP’s first-ever “health day” countries endorsed a Declaration of Climate and Health to confront health issues due to climate change, including incorporating health targets into long-term plans, increasing climate and health financing, building resilient and sustainable health systems, and reducing emissions. $2.1 billion was pledged by a variety of sources for health, food security and protection of vulnerable communities across the globe. More funding is needed, but it’s a good place to start.

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For the first time, COP28 also featured a whole day devoted to food and agriculture. Food systems – what we eat; how we grow, ship, and cook it; and how we dispose of (and sometimes waste) it – are responsible for roughly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions. For the better part of three decades, the final agreements that emerge from yearly climate summits have left out the impact food systems have on our climate. This year’s agreement acknowledged sustainable agriculture as a part of responding appropriately to climate change. The path includes cutting methane emissions from livestock by 25%, halving food waste emissions by 2030, and growing a more biodiverse range of crops.

In addition to taking steps that transform the food system, the broader COP28 agreement encourages countries to triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency, accelerate sustainable transport, and protect forests and nature to accelerate the transition to a new climate economy that is good for people, nature, and our planet.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels happening across the globe

According to a December 8 story in The New York Times, countries in Asia and Africa have made a seismic shift from gas engines to electric mobility vehicles (e-bikes and scooters). This shift has reduced global oil demand by 1.8 million barrels every day. Two- and three-wheelers account for 60 percent of that reduction, or 1.08 million barrels. Taken together, cars and smaller electric vehicles are projected to displace only 4 percent of total oil demand in 2023. However, transitioning from gas is vital to the energy transition because transportation accounts for about 20 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Of all the changes the world is making to slow further warming, electric vehicle sales are the only category on track to meet climate goals. Electric vehicles also solve the more immediate problem of air pollution.

In 2012 Sweden reached their target of 50% renewable energy 8 years ahead of schedule. This puts them on track to reach their 2040 goal of 100% fossil-free renewable electricity production.

In 2022 Costa Rica produced 98% of its electricity from renewable sources. Costa Rica uses a combination of hydro, geothermal, wind, biomass, and solar power to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. 

The United Kingdom is the global leader in offshore wind energy. It has more capacity installed than any other country, with offshore wind powering over 7.5 million homes. With a plan to increase this fourfold by 2030, this will go a long way to the government’s plan to decarbonize its power system by 2035. 

Consumers are now demanding clean energy and the U.S. has momentum through the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Law to address reducing greenhouse gases and move closer toward decarbonization. In the past year, the IRA’s clean energy and climate provisions have created more than 170,000 clean energy jobs. Companies have announced over $110 billion in clean energy manufacturing investments and the law is delivering billions of dollars to protect communities from the impacts of climate change. Public and private sector investments driven by the IRA and the infrastructure act are expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1 billion tons in 2030.

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COP28 participants agreed that transitioning away from fossil fuels is an effective intervention to improve health and save lives as part the United Nations' goal of climate neutrality by 2050. Ambient air pollution would no longer be a leading, environmental health risk factor if the use of fossil fuels were superseded by equitable access to clean sources of renewable energy.

In 1996, I published my first major paper on climate change impacts on human health. During COP28, health finally captured center stage. My hope is that decision-making will accelerate now that the climate crisis is understood as a human health emergency.  COP28 memorialized the beginning of the end of dependence on fossil fuels to more climate-friendly renewable energy sources. While there’s more work to do to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, I am more energized than ever that together we can reduce our dependence on fossil fuels while at the same time improve the lives of millions of people around the globe.

Dr. Jonathan Patz is the Vilas Distinguished Professor & John P. Holton Chair of Health and the Environment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Nelson Institute & Department of Population Health Sciences. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Medicine and former Health Co-chair for the first U.S. National Climate Assessment. He also served as a Lead Author for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.