Price of gold, silver expected to rise with interest rate cuts, UBS analyst projects

James Powel
A gold dealer displays three gold bullion bars on Dec. 13, 2023, in Birmingham, England.

Analysts forecast that the price of gold and silver will rise if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year, according to a report from CNBC Sunday.

Joni Teves, precious metals strategist with investment banking company UBS, told CNBC that she expects gold prices to hit $2,200 per ounce by the end of the year.

"We are expecting gold to be pushed higher by a Fed easing. Also this comes with a weaker dollar," Teves said.

In January, the Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% and poured cold water on the expectation of cuts in March.

While research has found that gold doesn't directly correlate with inflation in any meaningful way, people are likely buying more gold in an attempt to own some sense of stability in an economy that is rife with inflation, a tough real-estate market and a growing distrust for banks and other financial institutions, Jonathan Rose, co-founder of Genesis Gold Group, told CNBC.

According to the investing website Investopedia, the price of gold is influenced by a number of market factors including supply and demand, interest rates, market volatility and potential risk to investors. The spot price of gold stood at $2,034.78 as of Tuesday night.

Other expectations for 2024

Teves was also bullish on silver in 2024 if the Fed does ease interest rates.

"In a scenario where the Fed is easing, we think silver can do really well. It tends to outperform a move in gold," Teves said. "Silver has been underperforming gold quite a lot. So there is a lot of catching up to do and I think the move could be quite dramatic."

Silver has been tied to the health of the overall economy due to its industrial uses, according to the NASDAQ.

The UBS report came after a report from the Silver Institute projected that global silver demand would increase to 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, a 1% increase.

Jewlery demand was projected to increase by 6% while physical investment was projected to decrease by 6%.

The spot price of silver stood at $22.42 per ounce as of Tuesday evening.

Costco offers path into gold

Retail giant Costco said that it had sold over $100 million in gold bars in the first fiscal quarter of 2024, according to CNBC.

The wholesaler has the 1-ounce bars listed for sale online but they are available only to members with a limit of two bars per member. The 1-ounce PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan and Rand Refinery bars are made of 24-karat gold.