Latest National Climate Assessment paints sweeping picture of climate threats to the Midwest
Madeline HeimA federal report released Tuesday gives a wide-ranging look at the ways climate change is already harming the U.S. — including the Midwest, often seen as a climate haven.
The National Climate Assessment, which comes out about twice a decade, is a catalog of the effects a warming world is having on the country's economy, ecosystems, culture and people.
As other climate reports have previously indicated, the assessment issues a serious message: without rapid cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the situation will continue to worsen.
Steve Vavrus, Wisconsin's state climatologist, said the report grounds readers in important historical context, reminding us how far our climate has deviated from normal.
The report emphasizes that it's not too late to initiate climate solutions, providing a bright spot within a difficult picture.
Here are five takeaways from its Midwest chapter.
Extreme weather swings wreak havoc on crops, communities
The Midwest's role as an agricultural powerhouse will continue to be threatened by climate change, the report found.
Impacts on agriculture and food production are "(some) of the most visible and concerning aspects of climate change," John Baker, a research leader with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said during a Wednesday briefing about the report.
Although average corn and soybean yields increased in recent decades across the region, those near-term gains will ultimately be eclipsed by long-term losses from extreme swings in precipitation.
Earlier snowmelt is expected to cause wetter springs, and drier summers are also expected, both of which can harm crops. For example, flooding and extreme drought decreased corn yields in some locations in the region up to 37% in recent decades.
Economic risks extend beyond farm fields. The U.S. now experiences a billion-dollar weather disaster about once every three weeks, compared to the 1980s, when it happened roughly every four months.
Just this year, Wisconsin has experienced five such disasters, including summertime drought and storm damage from hail and high winds, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
And it's not just disasters that could cost us. The report noted that warming winter conditions and decreased snow and ice cover in the upper Midwest could wind up affecting recreation and tourism, which can impact the economy and even regional culture.
More:As Wisconsin's climate gets warmer and wetter, beloved winter activities could be in jeopardy
Climate-related death, illness could increase without action
Without more efforts to reduce emissions and promote climate resilience, the Midwest will face more climate-related death and illness as extreme heat events increase, the report found. Extreme heat affects Wisconsinites more than any other natural disaster, according to the state health department.
Midwest residents can also expect more exposure to wildfire smoke, according to the report, causing air quality concerns similar to this past summer. Higher temperatures, periods of drought and more volatile winds are yielding wildfires that burn faster and push smoke farther.
More:'This is on our doorstep now': Wildfire smoke a reminder that climate change impacts human health
Heavier precipitation can produce health threats like drowning and injury, mold exposure and mental health effects related to stress and financial losses. The amount of precipitation falling in the most intense events increased by almost 50% in the Midwest between 1958 and 2021, the report found.
Environmental justice, Indigenous knowledge is a focus
The report took a critical eye to the ways that certain groups bear more of the brunt of climate change, as well as how Indigenous knowledge could chart a more sustainable path forward.
Communities of color and lower-income people face greater climate hazards because of systemic racism and other discriminatory policies, the report said.
For example, prejudiced housing policies forced Black Milwaukeeans into neighborhoods that are flood-prone, lack tree cover and are exposed to air pollution from nearby industry.
More:Many Milwaukeeans live in a heat island, and 'we can't air condition our way out of this'
More:Interactive map pinpoints Milwaukee areas most at risk for flooding, related health risks
The report noted that warming weather and changes in hydrology have been a detriment to wild rice, which is culturally significant to tribal communities across the Midwest.
Unexpected climate changes can impact the traditional ecological knowledge that Indigenous communities have developed for generations.
However, that knowledge can also be a road map to environmental solutions. Indigenous communities have led the way in re-establishing fire-adapted ecosystems, maintaining diverse crops and protecting the landscape, the report said. The College of Menominee Nation in Keshena received a shout-out for undertaking a research project to better understand changes to plants on the Menominee reservation.
Great Lakes, Mississippi River basins see multitude of threats
The Midwest’s most valued water resources are already showing the impact of climate change.
The Great Lakes saw low water levels between 1998 and 2013 and high water levels since 2015. That variability is due in part to warmer lake temperatures, precipitation intensity and lack of ice cover, the report said. Each extreme comes with its own challenges: low water poses risks to shipping and ports, and high water accelerates shoreline erosion and loss of coastal habitat.
Warming lake temperatures combined with a decrease in winter ice cover is also expected to result in a loss of suitable fish habitat. The lakes also continue to be threatened by invasive species and harmful algal blooms.
The Mississippi River is also seeing change, including swinging extremes between wet and dry conditions.
More river flooding is possible along the upper Mississippi through the end of the century, which is already having harmful effects on ecological resources like floodplain forests.
More:The Mississippi River's floodplain forests are dying. The race is on to bring them back.
Precipitation increases are also resulting in more phosphorus and nitrogen being washed into the river, which expand the Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico.
There are opportunities for the Midwest to lead on resiliency
Though the report contained sobering information, it also focused on ways that communities can adapt in the face of a changing climate.
The Midwest is primed to lead on climate-smart agriculture, which encourages farmers to enact practices like cover cropping and rotational grazing that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and counteract climate change impacts on their land.
The federal government put massive investment into the idea in the federal infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act. It will be important to closely track the efficacy of those practices as more farmers try them out, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub.
More:'Once in a lifetime' federal money is coming to Wisconsin's farm conservation programs
The Midwest can also step up by increasing green infrastructure to handle extreme precipitation and embracing renewable energy sources, Vavrus said.
Heidi Roop, an assistant professor at the University of Minnesota who directs the school's Climate Adaptation Partnership, said Wednesday her hope is that the Midwest continues to lead both on mitigating the harms of climate change and adapting to its already present effects.
"That will determine how we experience climate change, and critically, who is exposed to the risks and impacts of a warmer world," she said.
Madeline Heim is a Report for America corps reporter who writes about environmental issues in the Mississippi River watershed and across Wisconsin. Contact her at 920-996-7266 or mheim@gannett.com.
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