2024 Super Bowl: Patrick Mahomes prop bet odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle

Staff Writer

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are set to battle in Super Bowl LVIII Sunday. Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's odds for Patrick Mahomes' Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 26-7 at home Jan. 13, covering as 4.5-point favorites in the Wild Card victory. They followed by beating the Buffalo Bills 27-24 (Divisional Round) and the Baltimore Ravens 17-10 (AFC Championship), covering in all 3 games.

As for Mahomes, he has thrown for 4 TDs with no interceptions through the playoffs. He has a 68% completion rate and has totaled 718 passing yards in addition to 75 on the ground.

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Patrick Mahomes' 2024 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:12 p.m. ET.

Passing yards: UNDER 262.5 (-110)

Mahomes hasn't often hit this lofty total. He has gone Over this total just 2 times in his last 8 games and hasn't hit it in 4 straight games.

Mahomes can lead an offense as well as any other quarterback in the NFL, but that doesn't always mean racking up the yardage. Expect him to struggle to get high amounts of yards Sunday.

BET UNDER 262.5 (-110).

Pass completions: OVER 25.5 (+104)

Mahomes has had Over 25.5 completions in 3 of his last 6 games. He had gone for 37 or more attempts in 4 of his last 6 though, so the usage is there for the star.

However, the best rationale for this bet is that the 49ers sit 27th in opponents' 3rd-down conversion rate. Expect the Chiefs to be able to stay on the field and for Mahomes to extend drives and ultimately go Over this total.

BACK OVER 25.5 (+104).

Passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -140 | Under +114)

Mahomes has more than 1 TD in just 1 of his last 5 games, and the 49ers have a defense that is allowing just 18.4 points per game, the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

He may be able to drive and get 1st downs, but getting in the end zone is a completely different challenge on San Francisco.

AVOID backing either side of this one.

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Rushing yards: UNDER 25.5 (-110)

It might be the Super Bowl, but Mahomes, who has dealt with a myriad of ankle injuries throughout his career, isn't a big runner. He has gone Under this total in 2 straight games and in 5 of his last 7.

The 49ers have a strong linebacker corps and should be able to keep an eye on the star. Mahomes had 4 or fewer rushes in 5 of his last 8 games. Expect him to have limited use on the ground.

TAKE UNDER 25.5 (-110).

Interceptions thrown: UNDER 0.5 (-105)

Mahomes is being considered one of the best in NFL history despite having only played a portion of his career because of his composure in big moments.

He has not thrown an interception yet this postseason and hasn't thrown 1 in the last 4 games. Mahomes did throw a career-high 14 picks this season, but he has been exceptionally accurate over the last 4 games.

TAKE UNDER 0.5 (-115).

Pass attempts: OVER 36.5 (-115)

For the same reasons that betting the Over in completions is a solid wager, the Over in attempts feels right. The 49ers have a great red-zone defense, one of the best in the NFL.

But, they aren't great at getting off the field on 3rd down. Mahomes has gone Over this total in 2 of 3 postseason games and in 5 of his last 7. The usage should be there, suggesting his attempts will be as well.

BET OVER 36.5 (-115).

Rushing/receiving touchdown(s)

Anytime (+370) | 2+: (+3800)

AVOID. It's very unlikely Mahomes will run 1 in given his ankle issues. Plus, he has just 4 rushing TDs this season and hasn't had 1 since Week 16.

Passing yards

200+: (-600) | 250+: (-160) | 300+: (+220) | 350+ (+680)

Mahomes is a game manager, so much of how he plays may be determined by if the Chiefs are winning or losing. The 49ers have gotten out to poor starts, which could suggest Kansas City turns to the run game some.

The 49ers rank 13th in opponents' passing yards per game. While the normal line has some value, the adjusted lines are just too risky on all angles to take.

AVOID.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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