Nevada at Utah State odds, picks and predictions
The Nevada Wolf Pack (17-5, 4-4 Mountain West) and Utah State Aggies (19-3, 7-2) tussle Tuesday. Tip-off from Dee Glen Smith Spectrum is set for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nevada vs. Utah Stateodds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Nevada has logged 4 of its 5 losses in league play, and 3 of those have come on the road. The Wolf Pack are 2-1 straight up and against the spread (ATS) over their last 3 games; the lone loss in that stretch came on the road.
Utah State, ranked No. 21 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, had a 3-game win streak snapped Saturday when the Aggies, as 6-point underdogs, lost 81-67 at San Diego State. The 2nd-leading scoring team in the MWC (81.8 points per game) logged its worst shooting performance (45.9% effective field goal) since Dec. 16.
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Nevada at Utah State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Nevada +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Utah State -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nevada +5.5 (-110) | Utah State -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nevada at Utah State picks and predictions
Prediction
Utah State 77, Nevada 70
Moneyline
At home, Utah State is 10-0 this season and has won 13 in a row dating back to last season and 18 of 19 dating back to last December. The Aggies are 5-1 across their last 6 home tilts against Nevada. And KenPom pegs the USU home-floor advantage as 6th-best in the nation.
The Aggies have played a significantly tougher slate and are worthy of being a 70% pick in this match-up. PASS, but circle back if the USU ML action gets to -225.
Against the spread
The Aggies are 7-2 ATS across their last 9 home games. They are 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games when tabbed as favorites. Nevada is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 away from home. The Wolf Pack are coming off a win over MWC foe San Jose State; UN has lost 3 in a row ATS when attempting to back up a league win.
Save for its last game, the Utah State offense has been trending the right way lately. The Aggies figure to have a rebounding edge, and their terrific perimeter defense (28.8% 3-point defense, 8th in NCAA-I) figures to help avoid a back-door cover in a quick-3 endgame.
Nevada does not get anywhere near the number of close looks the Aggies get on offense. Like most of the MWC, the Wolf Pack play a slowed-down style of ball. USU stands apart with its fast play. Against the league's only other fast foe, Air Force, Nevada logged an ATS loss and was up only 4 with less than 6 minutes to go despite being favored by 14 points (Jan. 9).
TAKE UTAH STATE -5.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
The Wolf Pack bolted for 90 points in their win over SJSU. The last 22 times UN has tallied 80-plus points in a game, the Under has gone 15-7 the next time out. The Under is 8-3 in USU's last 11 home games when the total is 145-149.5.
Figure on a mid-pace back-and-forth with a decent number of free-throw attempts; both teams rank in the nation's top-50 in free-throw frequency. But other factors, particularly 3s, should not be expected to spiral the overall score. And Nevada has some slow-down trend in its recent games.
Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 149.5 (-110).
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